4/13/2024 — Europe is already planning for what happens if Ukraine loses. It’s ugly

A newly energized Russia is already escalating greyzone operations in Eastern Europe, says Estonia’s defense minister.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur speaks to reporters at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on October 18, 2022. STEFANI REYNOLDS / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

From: DEFENSE ONE By PATRICK TUCKER

A Ukrainian loss, which could happen very soon if U.S. weapons don’t arrive, would ramp up Russian efforts to destabilize the governments of NATO countries and increase defense spending across the alliance, among other disastrous effects, Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Defense Minister, told reporters Friday. 

When U.S. officials like President Joe Biden talk about why Ukraine’s struggle matters to Americans, they rely onn broad notions of democracy and the continuation of the international order—without specifically explaining a Ukraine loss in terms of what it means for everyday Americans. Perhaps because of this, Americans are evenly spliton the question of whether the United States is doing too much for Ukraine. 

Pevkur said one of the deliverables from last year’s NATO Summit in Vilnius was new battle plans for Eastern European countries should Ukraine fall. “These plans address these different scenarios,” he said. “Of course, for obvious reasons I cannot be very specific, but I can assure you that these plans are shaped by looking at the possible Russian posture in our neighborhood.”

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