8/16/2024 — Ukraine’s invasion of Russia exposes the folly of the West’s escalation fears

From: Atlantic Council By Oleksiy Goncharenko

Units of the Ukrainian army crossed the border into Russia for the first time on August 6, marking the launch of a surprise summer offensive that is rapidly transforming the dynamics of the invasion unleashed by Vladimir Putin almost exactly two-and-a-half years ago.

During the first week of Ukraine’s counter-invasion, Ukrainian forces established control over approximately one thousand square kilometers of land in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky. This is comparable to the total amount of Ukrainian land seized by Russia since the start of 2024. Ukraine is now moving to establish a military administration over areas of Russia under Kyiv’s control.

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a remarkably bold gamble that could prove to be a turning point in the wider war. Defining the strategy and motives behind the operation is a matter for Ukraine’s political and military leadership. However, at this early stage, I believe it is already possible to identify a number of initial successes.

The attack clearly caught the unsuspecting Russians completely off-guard, despite the near ubiquity of surveillance drones on the modern battlefield. This represents a major achievement for Ukraine’s military commanders that has bolstered their already growing international reputation.

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