8/28/2024 — Putin hopes Belarus border bluff can disrupt Ukraine’s invasion of Russia

From: Atlantic Council By Peter Dickinson

Kyiv has this week called on Belarus to withdraw its army from the Ukrainian border and warned of “tragic consequences” if the Belarusian military joins the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The strongly worded August 25 statementfrom Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs came in response to mounting reports of Belarusian troops concentrating close to the country’s shared border with Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials urged their Belarusian counterparts to “cease unfriendly actions” and called for them to pull back beyond firing range. In an apparent bid to spell out the possible consequences of any further escalation, they noted that if the Belarusian military violated the border, “all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s stern message was officially addressed to Minsk, but there is little doubt in Kyiv that the current Belarusian border buildup has actually been orchestrated by the Kremlin. Indeed, Sunday’s Ukrainian statement specifically cautioned Minsk against acting “under Moscow’s pressure.”

Russia has long sought to deepen Belarus’s involvement in the war against Ukraine, but on this particular occasion the Kremlin is believed to have a very specific goal in mind. Vladimir Putin hopes that by manufacturing a potential Belarusian threat along Ukraine’s northern border, he can force Kyiv to divert troops away from the ongoing Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk region and ease the pressure on his own overstretched army.

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