8/31/2024 — War Update from L’viv

From: Heero Hacquebord- Pastor and MTW Missionary

a helpful map showing changes on the ground in Ukraine over the past 2.5 years

As you probably know, earlier this month Ukraine launched a sudden incursion into the Kursk region of Russia, catching not only Russia but also Ukraine’s western partners by surprise.  Over the course of three weeks several thousand well-equipped, experienced Ukrainian soldiers have now taken more territory in Russia than Russia has taken in Ukraine since the beginning of this year.  The big question, though, is what will happen next and to what extent this incursion will help (or hurt) Ukraine.  Here are some of the reasons that Ukraine may have launched this incursion:
 

  • Ukrainian leaders say that this operation was launched in order to force Russia to move some of its soldiers from the front lines in Ukraine, thereby providing relief for Ukrainian soldiers in very tough situations.  At this point, though, it looks like Putin is not biting.  So far Russia has not sent its best forces to retake its own territory.  As a result, Ukraine has captured hundreds of poorly trained Russian soldiers.
  • This operation is helpful in providing a buffer zone around one of Ukraine’s border areas (Sumy) where communities have lived under relentless shelling and terrible destruction.  
  • President Zelensky says that the Ukrainian attack has averted a planned Russian incursion in this general area.
  • The Ukrainian operation reveals Putin’s vulnerabilities and weaknesses to the world and to Russians.  Within Russia, however, this is mitigated to a certain extent by Putin’s complete control over the media.
  • The incursion exposes Putins’ “red lines” as a bluff.  (See this article for more on this point.)
  • The area that Ukraine has taken puts it within artillery range of some important Russian supply routes.
  • Seizing a portion of Russian territory makes it undesirable for Putin to turn the war into a frozen conflict with the present areas of control.  It also prevent others (Trump?) from calling both sides to accept the current front lines as new borders.
  • The incursion into Russia is important for Ukrainian morale, in particular for that of Ukrainian soldiers who haven’t been on the offensive for quite a while.
 a t-90m russian tank captured by ukrainian forces in kursk, russia
 (@vykhor_group_ua on X (“twitter”))
The area of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia (next to the NE border of Ukraine)

On Monday and Tuesday of this week Russia launched the biggest aerial attack against Ukraine since the beginning of its invasion in February, 2022.  Over two mornings it fired a barrage of 327 cruise, guided and ballistic missiles as well as kamikaze drones at civilian targets all over Ukraine; 266 of them were shot down or brought down through means of electronic warfare.  A significant amount of damage was done to Ukraine’s already weakened energy infrastructure, causing extended blackouts and electricity rationing throughout the country.

the campus of a maternity and children’s hospital in Kyiv severely damaged by a precision Russian missile attack in July (during our English camp)
recent drone footage showing the extensive destruction of Chasiv Yar, a small town in Eastern Ukraine which Russia has been attacking and trying to capture since the beginning of this year

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