9/13/2024 — Why Ukraine will remain central to the future of European security

From: Atlantic Council By Silvester Nosenko

Although it is currently common to talk about the West as a unitary actor in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian War, the stakes actually differ significantly on the two opposite sides of the Atlantic. Most obviously, if Russia succeeds in Ukraine and goes further, Europe will become a battlefield. With this in mind, it makes sense in terms of security strategy to think of Europe individually as well as part of the broader Western world.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has thrown into stark relief what has long been obvious to many international relations scholars, namely that the Cold War ended more than three decades ago but left Europe with a security architecture that has gradually decayed in subsequent years and is now outdated. Mechanisms such as the OSCE and multiple arms treaties are clearly no longer effective. The sole exception here is NATO, but the alliance has been unable to put an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

It is therefore misleading to regard the invasion of Ukraine as an isolated problem within the framework of an otherwise stable European security environment. Instead, the current war is at least partially a consequence of the absence of effective alternative mechanisms for maintaining European security. These mechanisms are highly unlikely to emerge if Russia continues to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

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