
Vladimir Putin attempted to draw yet another of his famous red lines on September 12, warning Western leaders that any decision to let Ukraine use long-range missiles on Russian territory would put NATO “at war” with Russia. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, European countries, are at war with Russia,” he stated, before vowing to take “appropriate decisions” in response. There is one obvious problem with this latest threat: Ukraine is already using the weapons in question to hit occupied regions that Putin considers Russian without provoking any escalation, never mind war between Russia and NATO.
Putin’s comments came amid mounting speculation that Ukraine’s partners are preparing to lift controversial restrictions on the use of long-range Western weapons that currently prevent strikes against military targets in the Russian Federation. The United States, Britain, and France have all provided Ukraine with long-range missiles, but have so far blocked Kyiv from using them inside Russia. However, there are growing indications that Western leaders are now ready to rethink their stance and give Ukraine the green light.
By raising the prospect of World War III, Putin clearly hopes to intimidate the West and convince Ukraine’s allies that it would be prudent to maintain the present ban on strikes inside Russia. At the same time, his attempts to portray the issue as a potential game-changer are undermined by his own underwhelming response to Ukraine’s routine use of Western-supplied long-range missiles in areas such as Crimea that Putin has long insisted are now part of Russia. If the idea of Ukrainian air strikes on Russian territory really does represent a red line for Moscow, why did he not react to any of these earlier attacks?