
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine first began more than two and a half years ago, talk of Russian red lines has been a major feature of the international debate surrounding the war. Throughout this period, the Kremlin has relentlessly exploited this preoccupation with Russian red lines to fuel Western fears of escalation and limit international support for Ukraine.
With attention focused on Russia’s regular warnings, there has been virtually no discussion of the West’s own red lines. As a result, we still very little idea about what kinds of scenarios might be considered grave enough in Western capitals to warrant an escalation in support for Ukraine, or even direct military intervention.
So far, Western leaders have largely avoided the kind of confrontational tone favored by the Kremlin, preferring instead to speak about the need to deny Russia victory while pledging to stand with Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” The underwhelming language used by Kyiv’s allies has broadly matched the delivery of military aid to Ukraine, which has typically come with significant delays and often only in response to dangerous developments on the front lines in Ukraine.