
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to present his widely anticipated Victory Plan to United States President Joe Biden later this week. While the details of Zelenskyy’s plan have yet to be made public, it should already be obvious that any serious peace proposal must include a significant boost in current military support for Ukraine, together with the kind of credible long-term security commitments that can safeguard the country against further Russian attacks. In the absence of such conditions, it makes little sense for Kyiv to accept a temporary pause in hostilities that would legitimize Russian aggression and lead to a further weakening of Ukraine’s already precarious position.
More than two and a half years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, there is currently little indication that Vladimir Putin has any interest in peace. Instead, the Russian ruler makes no secret of his continued commitment to the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
While the Kremlin frequently voices its readiness for peace negotiations, the terms Moscow has in mind would make Ukrainian statehood virtually impossible. Putin often references peace talks held in Istanbul during the initial phase of the war as the basis for a future deal. But Russia’s demands in spring 2022 included the drastic reduction of the Ukrainian army to around ten percent of its current strength, along with a commitment to Ukrainian neutrality and a Russian veto on any future international military support. In other words, Moscow seeks to leave Ukraine nominally independent but completely at the mercy of Russia.