While many commentators are already speculating over the possibility of Ukraine peace talks in the coming months, there is actually very little to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated settlement. Ukrainian military commanders are certainly not counting on any pause in hostilities, and are instead preparing for a fourth year of Europe’s largest war since World War II.
Russia held the battlefield initiative throughout 2024, and managed to make gains at various points along the approximately one thousand kilometer front lines of the war. While Moscow was unable to secure any landmark successes, the relatively minor advances of the past year marked a shift from the largely static front lines in 2023. If the underlying causes of this Russian progress are not addressed, Putin’s invading army may be able to achieve a more decisive breakthrough in the coming year.
Russia’s gains in 2024 owed much to tactical and technological adaptations implemented since the early stages of the war. At the same time, Moscow also clearly benefited from a range of problems bedeviling the Ukrainian military, with troop shortages, ineffective leadership, and supply uncertainties at the very top of the list. Ukraine’s survival as a state may now depend on the country’s ability to resolve these issues in the coming months.
Voice of Ukraine 