
With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in the coming weeks, speculation is mounting that Ukraine and Russia may soon begin serious peace negotiations. However, there is very little sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to abandon his goal of subjugating Ukraine. Instead, the peace formula currently being promoted by Kremlin officials would be more likely to pave the way for the next stage in Putin’s campaign to erase Ukrainian independence entirely.
Ever since the abortive peace talks of spring 2022 during the initial phase of the full-scale invasion, Russia has insisted that any peace deal must include territorial concessions from Kyiv along with Ukrainian neutrality and the country’s comprehensive demilitarization. Putin himself spelled out Russia’s territorial expectations in June 2024, demanding that Kyiv cede four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces, none of which are fully under Russian control. This would mean handing over large amounts of unoccupied Ukrainian territory including the city of Zaporizhzhia with a population of around three quarters of a million people.