With the incoming administration seeking to cut U.S. aid to Ukraine, Europe should tap the Kremlin’s frozen reserves.
From: Foreign Policy By Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the founder of Myrmidon Group.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s ambition to end Russia’s war on Ukraine has raised expectations of a peace deal and set off a flurry of discussions among U.S. allies about potential peacekeeping forces and security guarantees for Kyiv. All of this assumes that Moscow is even interested in a deal. There has been much less talk about the United States’ and Europe’s options in the more likely event that Moscow rejects Trump’s peace initiative.
Trump’s designated envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has suggested that Russia’s rejection of peace would trigger a significant uptick in military support for Ukraine. But Trump has been more ambivalent. Indeed, many of his other advisors would like to eliminate or significantly reduce the U.S. share of assistance to Ukraine, which stands at roughly 45 percent of the trans-Atlantic total.
Moreover, Trump’s inner circle—including Elbridge Colby, his nominee to become the next deputy defense secretary—would like to execute a pivot to Asia by pressuring NATO’s European members to significantly boost their defense spending and take up most of the burden of ensuring Europe’s security.
An imperative to significantly increase European defense spending amid the growing threat posed by Russia, coupled with potentially increased outlays to support Ukraine, would bring new budgetary pressures on Europe’s already cash-strapped governments. Shifting social spending to military budgets would open the door to significant populist resistance.
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