Ever since Donald Trump’s November 2024 election victory, speculation has been mounting over a potential peace deal to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With Russian forces currently enjoying the battlefield initiative and amid doubts over continued US support for Kyiv, many observers believe Ukraine may have little choice but to accept highly unfavorable peace terms dictated by the Kremlin. Russia’s conditions would likely include the loss of territory along with wholesale disarmament and the imposition of permanent neutral status.
The implications of such a shameful peace for Ukrainian statehood would be catastrophic. Nor would the damage be contained within Ukraine’s violated borders. On the contrary, the consequences of abandoning Ukraine would reverberate around the world for many years to come, undermining the foundations of international security.
If it happens, the fall of Ukraine may not be immediately apparent. Indeed, it could even be temporarily disguised by face-saving talk of pragmatism and compromise. However, a demilitarized, partitioned, and internationally isolated postwar Ukraine without credible security guarantees would have little chance of surviving for long. Behind the diplomatic platitudes, it would be painfully obvious that Ukraine was now completely at Putin’s mercy. In such circumstances, a new Russian invasion would be merely a matter of time.
Voice of Ukraine 