1/15/2025 — No peace without security: Ukraine needs guarantees against new Russian invasion

From: Atlantic Council By Peter Dickinson

Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House has raised expectations of a fresh push for peace in 2025, with the US leader committed to seeking some kind of deal to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the exact nature of Trump’s peace plan is still unknown, it is expected to involve significant Ukrainian territorial concessions.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s negotiating position is already coming into focus. While Ukrainian officials continue to rule out officially ceding land to Moscow, there appears to be growing recognition in Kyiv that the complete liberation of the country is no longer militarily feasible. Instead, Ukraine has begun indicating a readinessto temporarily compromise on territorial issues, while at the same time underlining the critical importance of security guarantees.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his first meeting with Trump since the US presidential election to emphasize the need for credible security commitments in any negotiated settlement. During a three-way chat together with French President Emmanuel Macron in December 2024, the Ukrainian leader reportedly stressed to Trump that a ceasefire alone “would not be enough” to end the war with Russia.

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