From: Roman Sheremeta (Professor of Economics, Board Member, Founding Rector of American University Kyiv) — “The 1991 borders are unlikely to return” – The Times magazine outlines four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine.
Defeat. This is the worst-case scenario, involving russia continuing the war for an extended period while avoiding negotiations. The article notes that if Ukraine loses U.S. support, it could face military defeat. Millions of Ukrainian refugees would seek safety abroad, while thousands remaining in Ukraine would end up in russian prisons. NATO would lose its strategic positions, and Kremlin tanks could appear on Poland’s borders.
Bad peace. In this scenario, Ukraine, deprived of sufficient Western support, would be forced to make concessions from a position of weakness, resulting in an agreement that divides the country and installs a pro-russian government.
Ceasefire. The third scenario involves halting hostilities. If this becomes part of a transition to comprehensive peace, it could stabilize the region and preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty under international security guarantees. However, if it results in a mere “freeze,” russia could resume its offensive over time.
Peace settlement. The fourth scenario envisions Ukraine strengthening its position with U.S. support to negotiate from a place of strength. This would allow for an agreement ensuring the country’s economic viability, sovereignty, and security guarantees. However, the article notes that returning to the 1991 borders remains unlikely.
Source: The Times, TSN, UA News
Voice of Ukraine 