2/14/2025 — A Putin-friendly peace deal would be disastrous for global security

From: Atlantic Council By Ihor Smeshko

Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea was a watershed moment in modern European history. The Kremlin’s subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought the world to the brink of World War III. With negotiations over a possible peace deal now reportedly set to begin in earnest, we are approaching a critical juncture that will shape the future of international relations for decades to come.

In hindsight, it is now clear that the threat posed by Russian aggression in Ukraine could have been eliminated almost immediately. As soon as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the illegal annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Ukraine could have declared war and ordered its military to defend the peninsula. Putting NATO forces on alert would have further cooled the heads of the more hawkish Russian officials in the Kremlin.

This did not happen. Instead, the international community stood by and watched the Russian invasion unfold, while Ukraine’s Western partners advocated passivity and cautioned Kyiv against doing anything that might risk provoking Putin. 

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