4/30/2025 — If Russian gas returns to Europe, it must go through Ukraine

From: Atlantic Council By Sergiy Makogon

If Russian gas returns to Europe, it must go through Ukraine

The possibility of resuming Russian gas supplies to Europe as part of a cease-fire agreement in Ukraine is being actively discussed. Technically, this would be feasible—Ukraine’s gas transmission system is still capable of transiting up to 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year of Russian gas to Europe.  

Nearly three months of zero gas flows have shown that Europe can manage without the volumes of Russian gas that previously transited Ukraine—only 15 bcm in 2024, compared to 84 bcm in 2019. Nevertheless, rumors of possible restoration of Russian gas deliveries to the European Union (EU)—either via Nord Stream or through Ukraine—continue to circulate in the press. Resuming this trade could be a potential Russian condition for halting hostilities as Russia desperately needs gas export revenues. If that is the case, resumed flows might be a necessary step to create peace. But they must be routed through Ukraine and under conditions that will ensure energy security and full transparency. 

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