Rock paper signed. After months of getting close only to come up short—including a rocky Oval Office meeting in late February between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—the United States and Ukraine quietly struck a much-anticipated economic partnership on Wednesday. The agreement is intended to open US access to Ukraine’s natural resources, including its critical minerals, while helping to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. What does the partnership entail? Where do Washington and Kyiv stand with each other now? And what message does the deal send to Russia? Below, Atlantic Council experts dig into the details and offer their answers.
Click to jump to an expert analysis:
John E. Herbst: This deal gives Trump a concrete interest in Ukraine’s survival
Shelby Magid: Ukraine is now in its strongest position since Trump took office
Matthew Kroenig: The United States now has a stronger stake in the future of Ukraine
Reed Blakemore: Ukraine’s critical minerals deposits will take years to bring to market
Ed Verona: With its unequal and exploitative terms, the deal’s future is uncertain
Doug Klain: The hard-won deal could reopen the door to more US military aid to Ukraine
Suriya Jayanti: Zelenskyy walked a very difficult line but the deal is a success
Andrew D’Anieri: There will be political drama, but expect Ukraine to ratify the deal
This deal gives Trump a concrete interest in Ukraine’s survival
This is a bad day for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The deal is a plus for US economic and national security policy. One, it is essential for the United States to have friends providing critical minerals. It cannot be dependent on adversaries such as China or Russia for that. So that is a plus. It is also positive for Ukraine, and not just because it now has an investor clearly committed to working on this subject of Ukrainian economic development. More importantly, this deal gives Trump—in terms he understands—concrete interest in Ukraine’s long-term survival as a secure, economically viable state.
The Kremlin will note with unhappiness that this agreement is the first occasion on which the new administration is talking about the provision of additional arms to Ukraine. It is unclear what the economic meaning of this is for the development of Ukrainian rare earths. What is absolutely clear is that, in Article VI of the deal laying out “Contributions to the Partnership,” the Trump administration is broaching for the first time sending arms to Ukraine. Making sure that does not happen has been one of Putin’s principal goals since the new administration took office.
Voice of Ukraine 