U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s attempt to reset peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv was doomed from the outset.
From: Kyiv Independent by Andreas Umland
In the early 19th century, one of the founding fathers of modern war studies, the Prussian general and military historian Carl von Clausewitz, commented on the Napoleonic Wars: “The conqueror is always peace-loving; he would much prefer to march into our state calmly.”
This remains an observation that applies to most military aggressions.
Yet, Clausewitz’s basic idea was ignored by most Europeans in their interpretation of Moscow’s behaviour after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014.
Much of European diplomacy and commentary until 2022 instead built on the assumption that the Kremlin’s public insistence on the peacefulness of its intentions towards Kyiv implies that one can and should negotiate and moderate Russian aims and behaviour in Ukraine.
This inapt premise ignored that Russian President Vladimir Putin merely preferred Ukraine’s non-violent takeover to an uncertain future military campaign against Kyiv. When, eleven years ago, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea and covertly invaded eastern Ukraine, the war as such had no benefits for Putin and his entourage.
Instead, a hybrid subversion of Ukraine by Russian agents and proxy forces, rather than a violent occupation of most of the Ukrainian lands by tens of thousands of regular Russian troops, was the preferred method.
During the last three years, however, the role of Russia’s – now full-scale – military invasion of Ukraine for Putin’s regime has changed. One the one side, the war itself has acquired a stabilizing function for the Russian political system that relies on an increasingly extremist ideology, militarized economy and mobilized society. On the other side, most European politicians, diplomats and experts now have fewer illusions about Putin’s putative love for peace than they had a decade ago.
Voice of Ukraine 