
KYIV—I arrived in Ukraine’s capital on June 1, several hours after news broke of the country’s successful destruction of advanced Russian bombers—TU-22s and TU-95s—and Russia’s most advanced intelligence plane, the A-50. Over the next two days, I had numerous meetings with senior Ukrainian officials, politicians, and civil society activists. The strike was a major morale boost across the board, though some of the Ukrainians I spoke with still worry whether the Trump administration will continue to supply military intelligence and equipment to Ukraine; others are optimistic that Trump will not let Russian President Vladimir Putin bamboozle him.
In the near term, the spectacular Ukrainian operation will have a major impact on Russia’s ability to strike from the air at Ukrainian civilian and military targets. It has also bolstered the nuclear security of the United States and its allies by taking out as much as 34 percent of Moscow’s nuclear-capable bomber force. But perhaps the greatest impact of the strike extends to the diplomacy to end the war, and in particular to the calculations of the Trump administration. That is because the strike undermined the common perception, including in the White House, that time was on Putin’s side and Russia would ultimately overwhelm Ukraine.
How has that big idea played out this week? It is notable that the only immediate reaction to the strike from Trump world came from outside actors, many of whom have shown little understanding that the Kremlin considers the United States to be its principal adversary. Some in this cohort have even naively argued that the United States has no stakes in its aggression against Ukraine…