This is part of a series of regular assessments of the efforts, spearheaded by the Trump administration, to achieve a negotiated end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Read the previous edition here.
US President Donald Trump’s policy toward Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to evolve in a rush of small and large steps as he reacts to events in Europe and beyond. The two large recent occasions for this were, first, the Israeli-US strikes against Iran’s nuclear program and, second, the NATO Summit at The Hague. While there were contradictory signs, Trump’s reaction to both major events signaled an evolution toward a tougher line on Moscow.
Since he won the election last November, Trump promised that he would end the Russian war on Ukraine by asking for concessions from both sides and putting pressure on the side obstructing progress toward a durable peace. Since March, Ukraine has accepted without quibble several of Trump’s proposals while Russia has first deflected, then rejected them. Despite this, the Trump administration has been reluctant to put pressure on Moscow. Washington underscored this at the June 16-17 Group of Seven (G7) summit, when Trump blocked an initiative to lower the price cap for a barrel of Russian oil from sixty dollars to forty-five dollars, which would have put more pressure on the Russian oil revenues enabling its aggression in Ukraine. Trump provided a second gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin at that summit by criticizing his G7 colleagues for expelling Russia from the Group of Eight (G8) after Moscow seized and “annexed” Crimea in 2014.
The Middle East dimension
On June 13, a few days before the G7 summit started, Israel began its remarkably successful operation against Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities. Trump used the Middle East conflict as a reason to leave the G7 summit early, expressed his long-held view that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons, stressed support for Israel’s operation and, with US allies, provided additional air defense for Israel. Trump then ordered the June 22 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.
Voice of Ukraine 