7/9/2025 — Putin is winning the drone war as Russia overwhelms Ukraine’s defenses

From: Atlantic Council By Maksym Beznosiuk

Russia’s July 4 bombardment of Kyiv was reportedly the largest of the entire war. The attack came just hours after US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had finished an unsatisfactory telephone conversation, leading many to suggest that the raid was a calculated act of defiance by the Kremlin.

Whether the intention was to personally embarrass Trump or not, the recent Russian airstrikes in the early hours of American Independence Day certainly served to underline the changing fortunes in the drone war between Ukraine and Russia.

For the first few years of the war following Putin’s 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s dynamic tech sector and vibrant startup culture helped keep the country a step ahead of Russia despite the Kremlin’s far greater resources. In recent months, however, it has become increasingly apparent that the initiative has passed to Moscow. 

The recent shift in the drone war is a matter of both quantity and quality. Russia is now producing far more drones and has developed new models incorporating a range of technological upgrades. This is making it possible to launch massive bombardments of Ukrainian cities that overwhelm Ukraine’s limited air defenses and terrorize the civilian population.

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