Ever since Russia began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, debate has raged over whether Vladimir Putin’s ambitions extend further. Could the Kremlin dictator actually attack NATO? Initially, many were skeptical, but as Russia’s invasion has escalated into the largest European war since World War II, more and more security experts believe that some kind of Russian attack on the NATO alliance is now a realistic possibility.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently stated that Russia could mount a military operation against a NATO member state within the next five years. Numerous intelligence services and military officialswithin the alliance concur. This Russian threat to NATO is helping to spur the largest European rearmament drive since the end of the Cold War. However, increased defense spending alone will not solve Europe’s Putin problem. NATO members must also convince the Kremlin that they have the political will to defend themselves, while urgently updating their military doctrines to reflect the drone-dominated realities of modern warfare.
Those who question Russia’s ability to attack NATO typically point to the underwhelming performance of the Russian army in Ukraine. They note that the current invasion has exposed the limitations of Putin’s war machine and argue that Russia would have no chance in any direct confrontation with the far more formidable forces of the NATO alliance. This is true enough, but it assumes that Russia’s only option is to launch a conventional war against NATO. In reality, a future Russian attack would be far more likely to employ hybrid warfare tactics or rely on the Kremlin’s rapidly evolving drone warfare capabilities.
Voice of Ukraine 