In the past few weeks, the Trump administration’s approach to Ukraine has whipsawed between near abandonment to a renewed embrace. But one element has appeared firm throughout: There must be a negotiated settlement to end Russia’s full-scale invasion that has raged since February 2022. This may be the common thread between the Biden administration’s view of how Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine would eventually need to end and the Trump administration’s early pursuit of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. There will never be a military solution to the war, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio diagnosed during testimony in May before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Of the possible futures, a negotiated settlement is the path that most favors Ukraine. The alternatives to a settlement are harrowing over both the short and long term, but more so for Ukraine than for Russia. Absent a game-changing development on the battlefield, neither side can innovate or maneuver its way to enough territorial gains to claim outright victory. But Russia can continue to attack Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure fiercely and frequently, while Ukraine counterpunches to drive the war home to Russia in small, sometimes meaningful, measures. Russian forces could achieve significant territorial gains in a late-summer offensive or Ukraine’s defenses could largely continue to hold—at extraordinary costs to Ukrainians.
This is not to say the costs to Russia now and into the future are insignificant. Russia’s economy has been battered and isolated, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has retrenched from other malign pursuits—in the Middle East, in the Sahel, and in the Caucasus—to concentrate resources for his war in Ukraine. But Putin will likely continue to weather the astonishing costs of the war, including lost troops, equipment, and influence elsewhere around the globe. He will do this by prioritizing defense production, skirting sanctions, and drawing upon his deepened partnerships with North Korea, Iran, and China.
Voice of Ukraine 