7/29/2025 — Trump’s ultimatum to the Kremlin: ISW doubts Putin will agree to peace without battlefield pressure

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin during the G20 leaders’ summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Nov. 30, 2018. (Photo: REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci)

From: New Voice of Ukraine by: Alex Stezhensky

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is unlikely to make any concessions toward ending the war against Ukraine unless Ukrainian forces achieve significant victories on the battlefield, according to a July 28 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts cited former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a fresh deadline for Putin to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. On July 28, Trump declared that the Kremlin had “10–12 days starting from today” to strike a deal.

However, ISW experts noted that Kremlin officials continue to frame Russia as being in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West to justify the war against Ukraine and future Russian aggression against NATO. This posture, the analysts said, is meant to sustain domestic support for the invasion. They pointed to recent public remarks by Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

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