The issue of security guarantees for Ukraine has emerged in recent weeks as a key focus of diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s invasion and achieve a lasting peace in Eastern Europe. But while almost everyone appears to agree that security guarantees are an essential element of any peace deal, there is currently no consensus over what these guarantees should actually involve.
At present, the emerging picture of future security guarantees appears to have four key components. These include a sustained allied military presence in or near Ukraine, robust air defense support, long-term weapons supplies, and mechanisms to monitor any potential ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he wants NATO-style commitments that would bind guarantor states to defend Ukraine, and insists any guarantees should be ratified by participating governments. European nations are expected to take the lead in providing security guarantees, with the United States playing a crucial but as yet undefined supporting role.
Much of the discussion over security guarantees has focused on the deployment of a military contingent to Ukraine in order to help enforce and monitor any ceasefire agreement. However, the potential composition and exact role of such a force remain unclear. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently told the Financial Times that Europe has a “pretty precise” plan in place to send troops to Ukraine, but other senior European officials have since suggested that her comments were premature.
Voice of Ukraine 