9/5/2025 — Ukrainian bombing campaign turns Russia’s sheer size into a weakness

From: Atlantic Council By David Kirichenko

For centuries, Russia’s sheer size has been its greatest asset, making the country virtually unconquerable and guaranteeing an almost limitless supply of human and material resources that have helped secure generations of superpower status. However, there are signs that this may now be changing. Ukraine is currently conducting a long-range bombing campaign across Russia that turns the country’s vastness into a weakness and exploits the Kremlin’s inability to defend every inch of the endless Russian skies.

Ukrainian bombing raids on Russian oil refineries have been underway since the early stages of the war but have gained significant momentum over the past month. While the Kremlin remains tight-lipped over the impact of these attacks, evidence of significant damage is mounting. By late August, Ukraine had succeeded in disrupting at least 17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Reuters. Britain’s Economistmagazine says that the figure may be as high as 20 percent.

Ukraine’s attacks have sparked a fuel crisis in Russia, with queues reported at gas stations throughout the country amid a surge in prices. By early September, Russia’s wholesale gasoline price had climbed to record highs. This combination of shortages and rising costs is already creating unwelcome social pressures that the Kremlin cannot afford to ignore. If Kyiv is able to maintain the current pace of attacks, this could begin to seriously constrain Putin’s ability to fund the invasion of Ukraine.

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