The recent launch of Russian drones into Polish airspace generated global headlines, but the incident was far from unprecedented. In reality, it was the latest escalation in a far larger Kremlin campaignthat aims to test NATO’s resolve and intimidate European leaders. In addition to regular incursions into NATO airspace, Russia is also accused of disrupting thousands of European flights through the widespread use of GPS jamming. Unless the West responds decisively, Russia will continue to escalate.
For the Russians, gray zone acts of aggression such as the recent drone raid on Poland offer an opportunity to gauge how far they can go without provoking a major military response. Each new operation is a probe. If Russian drones can cross into Poland unchecked, the next stage may be for missiles to begin “accidentally” striking NATO territory.
As none of the drones launched at Poland last week appear to have been armed, it is reasonable to conclude that Putin does not currently seek to conduct a conventional attack on NATO. Instead, the operation served a number of other objectives. Crucially, it allowed the Kremlin to test NATO’s red lines and demonstrate that the alliance is hesitant to act, even when its borders are so clearly penetrated. This strikes at the credibility of NATO’s core commitment to collective security.
Voice of Ukraine 