More than five years since pro-democracy protests threatened to topple the regime of Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka, relations between Belarus and the country’s European neighbors remain locked in a downward spiral that is only adding to the instability of the wider region.
When Lukashenka resorted to a brutal crackdown against protesters in 2020, the West responded with sanctions and withdrawal. The aim was to impose penalties on the Belarusian ruler and ensure his political and diplomatic isolation. Five years on, it is now abundantly clear that this has failed to prevent Belarus from sliding further into dictatorship.
Today, large numbers of Belarusian political prisoners remain behind bars amid a political climate that is more repressive than ever. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has capitalized on Lukashenka’s predicament to strengthen its grip on Belarus and involve the country in Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. Belarus is now not only a nation with a weakened civil society and undermined sovereignty that is moving further away from democracy; it has also become a threat to international security.
If Europe maintains its present policies, it is safe to assume that relations with Belarus will remain on the current trajectory. This may suit Lukashenka, who has managed to stabilize his rule and minimize the threat posed by his exiled opponents. It would certainly suit Russia, which has used the last five years to strengthen control over Belarus and weaponize the country against its European neighbors.
However, regional security would be further undermined, with broader Euro-Atlantic strategic interests also likely to suffer. This would be particularly unwelcome at a time when the democratic world already faces growing challenges from an emerging alliance of autocratic powers including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
Voice of Ukraine 