As US talks with Russia and Ukraine intensify, attention has turned to the potential terms for a settlement to end the war. Amid recent developments, Turkey has expressed cautious optimism about the path toward peace. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Die Welt this week that a Ukraine-Russia agreement could secure regional peace for fifty to seventy years, saying such a deal should oblige both sides “not to attack each other under any circumstances.”
However, a premature deal that favors Russia or leaves Ukraine without credible and functional security arrangements would threaten Turkey’s own security, influence, and strategic position in the region. For Ankara, the consequences of a lopsided peace deal that advantages Moscow will continue to be felt long after the immediate cessation of hostilities. Any peace that cements Russian gains would alter the balance of power in the Black Sea region and constrain Turkey’s geopolitical footprint for decades.
The downside for Turkey in recent “peace” proposals
A “Russia-friendly” peace deal—one that legitimizes occupation or implicitly accepts the Kremlin’s claims to expand its territorial gains in Ukraine—would destabilize the region and seriously damage Turkey’s long-term position. A weakened Ukraine, stripped of its territorial integrity and military capacity, would alter the balance of power in the Black Sea in Russia’s favor—a scenario for which Turkey would pay a heavy price. From Crimea to the Caucasus, the consequences would reverberate across Ankara’s geopolitical environment.
Voice of Ukraine 