From: Jason Jay Smart — Russia’s war is now colliding with three hard limits at the same time: a war built on an intelligence lie, a collapsing stream of oil money, and a powerful internal region that only stays loyal as long as the cash flows.
This episode begins with a rare admission on Russian television. A former ground forces commander confirms that the invasion of Ukraine was sold to the Kremlin with a fantasy, that 70% of Ukrainians would welcome a pro-Moscow regime. Instead, the “3 day operation” became a grinding war that drains soldiers, budgets, and political authority.
From there, we follow the money. Sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries and “shadow fleet” oil tankers are crushing profits at Russia’s biggest energy companies. The Kremlin is forcing major banks to absorb toxic debt while ordinary Russians pull $6.5 billion USD in cash out of the system.
All of this converges on a key region in Russia’s south, a small republic roughly the size of Connecticut, run as a personal fiefdom by a strongman loyal to Putin. Ukrainian drones are now striking this region’s capital, and with oil revenues shrinking, the question becomes whether a bankrupt Kremlin can still afford to keep its own private armies loyal.
Voice of Ukraine 