In recent weeks, the Trump administration again engaged in talks aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump and his envoys should be applauded for attempting to end a conflict that has dragged on for nearly four years at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. Unfortunately, given the current realities of the battlefield, any negotiated peace will almost certainly favor Russia. On this, the Trump administration is correct.
However, the administration should consider the consequences of agreeing to a deal that favors the clear aggressor instead of fighting for a more balanced and just peace. The effects of the former would be felt far beyond Ukraine, Russia, and Europe: the very terms that would be agreeable to Russian President Vladimir Putin are exactly the ones that could embolden China to take military action of its own. The United States cannot isolate its actions in one part of the world from its goals in another. China will learn from any peace in Ukraine made under the current situation. The United States will reap the consequences.
Unacceptable terms
The most contentious issue in any peace deal is that of territory. Russia occupies large portions of eastern and southern Ukraine. Putin thinks he can lay claim to what his forces already occupy (and potentially more) in any negotiated settlement, especially because Ukraine has not demonstrated the ability to reclaim that territory. Also concerning are the implications of a potential near-term peace deal on the issues of Ukrainian sovereignty and a renewal of international economic cooperation with Russia. Putin wants limits on Ukraine’s military and its ability to join NATO. He also wants a cessation of sanctions against Russia, Moscow’s readmittance to the Group of Eight (G8), and the restoration of frozen Russian assets. Instead of a pariah, Putin wants Russia to be a respected member of the international community—the status quo ante but better.
Voice of Ukraine 