10/14/2022 – War update and commentary

From Jamie Peipon: In the picture above you can see a line of trucks waiting to get from russia to Crimea. There are apparently about 900 trucks in line and they are not able to use the bridge. People are reporting that the wait is at least three days long. Whatever happened on that bridge is significantly slowing down the supply lines that feed into the Kherson front.

That front’s days must be numbered. “Western military officials” have been quoted as saying that Ukraine could take back the city of Kherson as early as next week. HIMARS have been working effectively there with more ammo depots and other strongholds being softened over this week. In fact, in one 18-minute span yesterday, Ukraine shot down four (some reports are now saying five) russian attack helicopters in southern Ukraine.

It is amazing to consider how many vehicles have been lost by the occupiers. There is one open-source group that must spend all day and night geolocating pictures and videos that are posted online of all the heavy equipment they’ve seen destroyed or captured online. They only post what they can visually confirm as destroyed and as unique. By their count, russia has lost more than 7,000 vehicles in Ukraine since February 24th.

There are also indications that missiles may be running low. There was a computer chip recovered from the missile I posted about 3 days ago that struck the pedestrian bridge in Kyiv. The chip had a production date of March 2019 stamped on it. That means that the missile itself must be newer. Generally speaking, militaries will use their equipment in order from oldest to newest. We also know that the production speed of that particular missile is 3 per month. If you do the math, and consider that they probably won’t use absolutely everything they have in Ukraine, there can’t be many more of those Kh-101 missiles left.

As far as tanks go, a video is making the rounds of russia trying to modernize and refit their T-62 tanks. That will be quite a task as they entered service back when putin was nine-years-old. For comparison, the USA also had a main battle tank that was adopted in the early 60s: the M60 Patton. That tank was retired by the United States a quarter-century ago in 1997 (although still in use by some allied countries overseas). It just isn’t what you’d expect from the “world’s second greatest army.” As the joke goes in Ukraine… “Sure, russia has the second greatest army… the second greatest army in Ukraine.”

“God reigns over the nations;
God sits on his holy throne.”

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