From Jamie Peipon: In the picture above, you can see the defenses russia is working to set up in eastern Ukraine. You can see trenches, some deeper and some more shallow, as well as the dramatically named “dragon’s teeth.” But, like almost everything in russia, there is less than meets the eye. Some of these trenches are extremely shallow and no soldier will be able to hide out in them. They also aren’t deep enough to slow down any mechanized units. The ones that are deeper were dug in a straight line. It does not take a great military mind to understand why lining your soldiers up in a straight line in a ditch is a terrible idea. In addition, they don’t have any overhead cover and likely have no way of pumping out water when it rains. Lastly, the “dragon’s teeth” appear to be made of prefabricated concrete. They ought to be anchored to a concrete slab and it appears that they are not. If they indeed are unanchored, it will only take one Ukrainian bulldozer to quickly clear a path. All in all, these “defenses” are only likely to hold Ukraine’s armed forces back for a few hours once they have a plan and decide to move.
In Crimea and the rest of the Ukrainian south, logistics for russia have gone from bad to worse. According to their official documentation, they are planning to restore the Crimean bridge by July 2023. The operation of the ferry, however, has been temporarily stopped. Apparently there have been high winds that are preventing safe crossing of the Kerch Strait and they are only estimating that they’ll be able to resume operation on Tuesday. This is all good news for the southern front.
Back in russia, things are not looking any better. Reports are coming out that nine russian military bloggers are likely to be charged with crime of “discrediting the armed forces of the russian federation.” According to the report, their materials are being examined because of “criticism of the Ministry of Defense and its decisions during the special military operation.” It’s possible that, unless there are russian sources located outside of russia, this will make it more difficult to get information from russian sources going forward.
In addition, some of the new conscripts have not turned out like putin had hoped. One newly conscripted unit in Belgorod had three soldiers who opened fire on their own when they received their rifles. Twenty-two russian soldiers were killed and sixteen were wounded in the shootout. Two of the three suspects were killed at the scene and, apparently, the third was able to escape.
“Their graves are their homes forever,
their dwelling places to all generations,
though they called lands by their own names.
Man in his pomp will not remain;
he is like the beasts that perish.”