10/23/2022 – War update and commentary

From Jamie Peipon: In the picture above, you can see a few of the latest russian conscripts. It looks like they’ve been issued warm hats… but the rest of the gear does not look warm enough to withstand the coming Ukrainian winter. Across most of Ukraine, the overnight temperatures will be in the low thirties by the beginning of November. Strangely, nothing they have really seems to match between the three of them… except for the sausage they’ve been issued. If you’re confused about why they would be issued some sausage as part of their uniform, I’m afraid I can’t help you. I’ve got no clue as to how that became “standard issue” for them.

There have been several times over the past several weeks that the pressure has built up intensely around Kherson. The Ukrainian noose seems to continue to have tightened even further around the city today. The Ukrainian government is still calling for silence to protect operational security. The russian forces have been “encouraging” evacuation for the past several days. Today, the illegal, occupying government has said that civilians must leave the city because of the tense situation and the possibility of “terrorist attacks.” Up until this point, they were insisting that evacuations were voluntary.

On the one hand, there are reports that russian forces are getting ready to “dig in” and fight for Kherson. On the other hand, there are reports that they are doing their best to evacuate while they can. The only real information I’ve seen from Ukrainians is that russia abandoned two settlements north of Kherson (Charivne and Chkalove, if you’re interested) and that they’ve evacuated medics and officers from Beryslav. They are also reporting that looting and other illegal activity by russians has significantly increased over the past several days. What everyone seems to agree on is that Ukraine certainly has the upper hand and that it is only a matter of time before Kherson is back under Ukrainian control.

Meanwhile, russia attacked Ukraine’s infrastructure again today. Over 1.4 million Ukrainian households lost electricity. This is the new strategy. With winter coming, energy becomes more and more important. More Ukrainians will consider fleeing to Europe and this seems to be part of putin’s strategy. There are many reasons that he would want less Ukrainians in Ukraine, and more in Europe. The main effort at this point, from a military perspective, really needs to be getting additional air defense systems to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

“Offer to God a sacrifice of thanksgiving,
and perform your vows to the Most High,
and call upon me in the day of trouble;
I will deliver you, and you shall glorify me.”

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