From Jamie Peipon: In the picture, you’re seeing what is left of a Ukrainian dormitory. This is not a military university. Kids lived here, not soldiers. And yet, it was attacked by russian missiles. The goal is obviously just to terrorize the population. Imagine how bad things must be for a whole military to make their main goal terrorism. To me, this is such a clear sign of desperation and weakness. What’s particularly sad, is that the russian people see it as strength. Their world is so completely backwards that words fail.
According to one open-source intelligence group, they have calculated that the average lifespan of a mobilized russian soldier at the front line. On average, from the moment one makes it to the front, a russian soldier will only be alive for four days. Videos are still pouring in of soldiers standing around in groups, dressed in mismatched uniforms, lamenting the fact that they haven’t even been issued a rifle. It is no surprise that their lives are so quickly cut short.
The mobilized troops are at the center of the current going theories in the Kherson region. Over the past weeks, there have been conflicting reports about whether russia was removing troops and abandoning the city, or if they were actually reinforcing it. The best intelligence currently seems to indicate that the more valuable troops are indeed being evacuated, and russia is trying to flood the area with these untrained, mobilized forces. Ukraine has continued to execute “shaping” operations which prepare the battlefield for a push forward as they continue to target ammunition depots and other high-value targets in around the city.
The hope remains that russia will soon finally run out of their missiles. However, there are now reports that Iran will be supplying russia with short-range ballistic missiles. A US Defense Department spokesman confirmed that they are “worried” this will be the case. CNN reports that Iran is preparing to send about 1,000 weapons to russia citing unnamed western officials.
There are increasing reports of organized attacks from Ukrainian partisans in occupied territories. Think-tanks are beginning to track and measure the effectiveness and have concluded that they are happening efficiently and regularly enough that the kremlin is being forced to divert resources that they would prefer to have on the frontlines back to occupied territory in order to better secure it. There is no evidence that they have been effective at combating the partisans. It appears that this activity has significantly hindered russia’s ability to rebuff Ukrainian counterattacks.
“Attend to me, and answer me;
I am restless in my complaint and I moan,
because of the noise of the enemy,
because of the oppression of the wicked.
For they drop trouble upon me,
and in anger they bear a grudge against me.”