12/9/2022 – War update and commentary: Lies

From Jamie Peipon: The picture was released by the SBU (Ukraine’s Security Service – their equivalent of the CIA). Faces are blurred to protect each person’s identity. Apparently, just for the humor in it, they blurred the cat’s face as well. You can also see that the weather was definitely in freezing temperatures wherever this photo was taken as there is still snow both underfoot and perched in the trees. The weather continues to be a factor as it has been below freezing all week. However, the forecast across all the front lines is scheduled to warm up next week. Mud will likely continue to prevent either side from making any move that would shift the front lines significantly.

On the eastern front, russia seems to have regrouped as much as possible in order to throw everything they have at the city of Bakhmut, a city in which only about 2,000 citizens are left including approximately 300 children. When battle-hardened soldiers and military correspondents often refer to a place as “absolute hell,” you can be confident that conditions are terrible. One report said that heavy fighting had been going on today for twelve straight hours with heavy losses on both sides. No one is quite sure what the russians are thinking with this effort. There aren’t any major rail lines or highways running through this town so the strategic value is very limited, but russia has been going after it for multiple months already. They’ve made some small gains recently, but the cost is extremely high… and those costs are on both sides. Ukraine could tactically retreat from the area, but that would not end the attacks, it would just change the venue a few dozen kilometers. The best guess as to why it is that russia is going all-in at Bakhmut is that they are desperate for something to claim as a victory.

The situation in russia seems to be deteriorating, however slowly. The russian Ministry of Health seems to be recognizing that they are losing a whole generation of young men and have announced that russian families “should have three or four children to increase the population.” In addition, one of putin’s former speechwriters has claimed that the kremlin has made backup plans for an exit strategy to Latin America in case of defeat in Ukraine. If true, that says a lot about the confidence that putin and his cronies have in their armed forces. It would also mean that they can conceive of a scenario in which their power slips away. He doesn’t seem to be feeling much danger at this point and he is as brazen as ever with his lies. Today, a video came out of him speaking with the press at a military awards ceremony in a large ballroom while nursing a flute of champagne. He said, “There’s been a lot of noise about our strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Yes, we’ve done that. But who started it? Who hit the Crimean bridge?” He even went so far as to claim that Ukraine committing acts of genocide… in Ukraine. Did you get that? Ukraine “started it” and they’re committing acts of genocide on themselves. That type of shameless, bald-faced, blatant lying is par for the course and does not make it sound like he’s too seriously worried about losing power at the moment.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s long-range artillery decimated eight locations where russian troops were concentrated, five control points, an artillery squad, and an ammunition depot. All of that happened in the last 24 hours or so.

Kherson has been under shelling from the south side of the river, but Ukraine’s armed forces have dialed in a few different locations where russians seem to keep gathering. There’s an airbase in Chaplynka, just north of Crimea, that has been a particularly choice target. It seems that this base might be in the running to become the new Chornobayivka (let the reader understand). Even areas well beyond the front lines have had reported explosions. Berdyansk and Melitopol have both had recent reports of explosions and potential Ukrainian Special Operations Forces activity.

“O God, break the teeth in their mouths;
tear out the fangs of the young lions, O LORD!
Let them vanish like water that runs away;
when he aims his arrows, let them be blunted.”

One response to “12/9/2022 – War update and commentary: Lies”

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