12/14/2022 – War update and commentary

From Jamie Peipon: Today, the biggest news of the past few weeks broke a little unexpectedly. CNN is reporting that the US is preparing to send Patriot anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine. The US has previously sent NASAMS which are considered “mid-range.” The Patriot system is considered to be long-range and is particularly useful for bringing down ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft. Just like with HIMARS, the operational range depends upon the munitions provided. In other words, we know that this will be a massive improvement to Ukraine’s defense against all kinds of aerial threats, but we don’t know how massive of an improvement it will be.

Assuming this all goes to plan, there will still be a few months of training to happen before these units are put to use in Ukraine. There are dozens of soldiers that will need training that typically takes months, unless that training was secretly already under way. The Patriot systems, however, can’t get their soon enough as obviously russia has identified Ukraine’s surface-to-air defenses as a weak point through which to apply pressure on civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has done a great job with restoring power and heat throughout the country after each attack, but there are parts to those systems that are extremely difficult to source. Preventing their destruction to begin with will hopefully release a great deal of pressure on the entire nation.

Yesterday, I wrote about the strike on a restaurant/resort area in Melitopol that occurred on the 11th. The General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces released information today giving some of the reasons for hitting that location. It wasn’t just a matter of the presence of a large concentration of soldiers at the facility. Apparently, the entire command of the russian 58th Army was there enjoying a few adult beverages. The General Staff is confident that the entire command was eliminated.

The strikes in Melitopol are causing speculation to increase that it is the next target for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations and liberation. Through the end of this week, the weather is predicted to only be below freezing a couple times overnight. As of Monday, however, the next cold front will have arrived. Ukraine’s defense ministry is openly saying that russia’s only remaining ally in Ukraine is mud. “But it is a temporary ally, and one that lasts only until the winter freeze.” They seem poised for the next move, but, as they showed in the northeast and in Kherson, they’re willing to be patient in order to increase their chance of victory.

“For behold, they lie in wait for my life;
fierce men stir up strife against me.
For no transgression or sin of mine, O LORD,
for no fault of mine, they run and make ready.
Awake, come to meet me, and see!”

2 responses to “12/14/2022 – War update and commentary”

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